Why This Silver Bull Market Is Nothing Like 1980 or 2011

by Brother Carlton 
12/03/25
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I’ve lived through two major silver bull markets—1980 and 2011—and I’ve followed precious metals for most of my adult life, before and after my years in Hollywood. Those two earlier cycles were unforgettable. Anyone who lived through them remembers the excitement as prices climbed, the feeling that something big was happening, and then the disappointment when both peaks ended with long, painful bear markets. Those memories shape how I approach today’s market. In fact, they’re the reason I’m writing this. Because when I look at the current silver environment, I don’t see anything that resembles the setup that led to those earlier collapses. If anything, the opposite is true.

And today’s price action (Friday, Nov 28th) only strengthened that conviction. Silver jumped about $3.53 on the December contract, closing near $56.71, one of the strongest moves we’ve seen so far. I checked the price several times throughout the day and kept watching it grind steadily higher. No wild intraday reversal, no panic buying spike—just solid upward pressure. That’s usually what accumulation looks like, not speculation.

What really caught my eye were the miners. When silver itself is up around 6.64%, that’s strong. But miners outperforming the metal is often the early sign of a new leg higher. SilverCorp Metals (SVM) finished up 9.22%, Apollo Silver (APGOF) rose 10.65%, and Vizsla (VZLA) climbed 9.96%. When miners start leading the metal like that, it tells me the market is waking up at a deeper level. Miners are like the early warning radar of the silver sector—they tend to sniff out what’s coming before the metal moves decisively. Today was one of those days.

But to understand why this bull market is so different from the two that ended badly, we have to look beyond day-to-day moves and examine the big picture. And the big picture today is completely unlike the circumstances surrounding 1980 or 2011.

The first major difference is the value of the dollar itself. Many people discuss the old $50 high from 1980, but few adjust it for inflation. That $50, back then, represented a very different dollar than the one we have today. Adjusted for the loss of purchasing power, the 1980 high is closer to $200 in today’s dollars. That means silver isn’t just “not expensive”- it’s nowhere close to reclaiming its real, inflation-adjusted high. When people say silver is overextended today, they’re comparing apples to oranges. Today’s $56 silver isn’t expensive; it’s still deeply undervalued when you factor in what the dollar has become.

Then look at gold. In 1980, gold reached a peak of around $850 per ounce. Today, gold has broken to about  $4,269.80. Gold has more than quadrupled its old high, while silver is only now revisiting the nominal numbers from 1980. In past cycles, silver has always been the metal that plays catch-up late in the game- and often overshoots dramatically once momentum really kicks in. That catch-up move hasn’t happened yet. The gap between gold’s modern performance and silver’s stagnation is one of the clearest signs that this bull market is still developing, not ending.

Another major difference lies in where this bull market began. Before the 2011 run, silver traded around $5 for years. Before the 1980 spike, it was even lower. But the current bull market began from a base around $20 - four times higher than before. That’s not a sign of speculation. It’s a sign of deep structural stress in the financial system. When the foundation is that much higher, it usually means investors are positioning themselves ahead of something bigger: declining trust in fiat currencies, persistent deficits, rising global debt, and geopolitical instability. Silver is reacting to a more fragile world, not a speculative frenzy.

This brings me to the character of the rise itself. The runs into the 1980 and 2011 highs were parabolic. Prices shot almost straight up, driven by emotion, leverage, and late-stage panic buying. Those kinds of moves almost always reverse violently. The 2025 rise looks nothing like that. Even days like today, which were a strong breakout, feel measured. The market isn’t sprinting. It’s walking forward with purpose, taking breaks between moves. Markets that rise like this don’t usually collapse. They usually continue.

Another important distinction is investor sentiment. In both earlier peaks, silver and gold were in the headlines. Investors were talking about them everywhere. There was a sense of mania, as everyone had suddenly discovered precious metals at the same time. In 2025, precious metals are still a footnote. Most investors remain focused on technology stocks, AI themes, chip companies, cryptocurrencies, and high-growth narratives. Silver and gold barely get mentioned. ETF holdings are low. Miners have lagged for years. There is no rush of new retail investors flooding into the silver space. And without mania, it’s very hard to have a final top.

Over the years, I’ve made it a point to listen to people who’ve followed these markets even longer than I have. Bob Moriarty is one of those voices. I read his book Nobody Knows Anything and have listened to many of his interviews. I’ve learned a lot from his reflections on sentiment, cycles, and human nature. What I appreciate most is his ability to cut through noise and focus on simple truths. The longer I follow these markets, the more I realize how right he is: the crowd is almost always wrong at the extremes. And when I look at sentiment today, it doesn’t look anything like a topping pattern. It looks more like people are still asleep.

Manipulation and intervention are other areas where this bull market differs sharply from the past. In 1980, there was an open intervention. In 2011, there were clear signs of coordinated pressure in the paper markets. Today, while manipulation is always possible, I don’t see the same fingerprints. Central banks have become net buyers of gold. The penalties for manipulation are tougher. And the underlying economic pressures supporting precious metals—especially debt—are far bigger than anything seen before. The forces pushing silver higher may simply be too large to contain.

That brings us to the biggest difference of all: global debt. In 1980, deficits were growing but manageable. In 2011, they were concerned. In 2025, they’re out of control. Governments and central banks have created a financial environment where debt can never be repaid, only inflated away. In such a system, real money eventually asserts itself. Not because of hype or popularity, but because the alternative - paper promises—can no longer be trusted.

When I put all of this together - today’s strong price action, the miners’ leadership, the inflation-adjusted comparisons, the divergence between gold and silver, the higher base price, the orderly rise, the lack of mania, the absence of clear manipulation, and the staggering global debt levels - I just don’t see how anyone could compare the current market to the ones that collapsed in 1980 or 2011.

Everything is different now. And all of it points in one direction.

The real move hasn’t even started yet.