Probability and your personal potential
by Joseph Jagde
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Probability deals with outcome but also with what I'll probably want to do. It's a subtle distinction but something to keep in mind as we try to chart a course. I'll probably want to go in the water if I go to the beach. So if I am in a given situation, I might want to consider what are the likely scenarios as to that which I will endeavor towards as I go into the scene. I'll probably want to enjoy the sun if it does come out. I'll probably want to get into reading this book if I do start it. I will enjoy this type of food if I try it. Our attempts relate to probability.
There is a great deal of likelihood that can be predicted.
Two people to get together for a date, it is likely a mutual attraction will lead to another date. A physical attraction could lead to a physical relationship.
There is nothing unusual or far-fetched about the laws of probability. I'll probably do better on this exam if I study for it. How much better I can't be sure in the exact but there is a real probability in terms of projected outcome. So as we continue on, consider the new territories and other possible territories we need to consider as real probabilities with their varied projections and with their attached probabilities.
For example, if I consider the idea of moving to a different part of the country. Say I'm in the United States, and I'm considering a jaunt into another state.
In all likelihood, I'll look for a new abode and I'll want to enjoy the new slate or circumstances and a probability that I might like to enjoy this new set of circumstances. No matter what situation I'm in, I could find some additional outcome and probable scenarios that I would very well enjoy and I can assign some probability to this. I can indeed find another way and find other probabilities in this way of approaching things.
Just because something is less probable doesn't mean it doesn't bring real possibility in terms of outcomes. As I begin to apply myself, I can further extend into the probabilities, which gives me a better view of possible outcomes and the quadrants.
There is less of a chance for this but that doesn't mean that there is no chance. You want something then try to get it by going through something you like rather than what you don't like. For example, I was to make say 100,000 dollars a year. I choose to do this by working for a company. I can work for a company I don't like or work for a company I like, achieving the same outcome. I go through something, get the same result but what I have gone through has differences. For example I go to the beach and this is the outcome I want. I can take a route that grates on me and is bothersome, or I can possibly take a more pleasant route, getting the same outcome.
Sometimes we will follow a course that gives us a slightly different outcome but a similar outcome. For example, I go to college. I want a college degree. I assign myself or choose a major that gets me into courses that I don't particularly enjoy, leading to a college degree in a specific subject. Or I can take courses I enjoy to a greater degree, and get that same college degree in the end.
Or say I go onto a roller coaster ride at Coney Island. I can get a smoother ride or I might get a ride where the roller coaster rides are bumpier in their movements, possibly hurting my neck. I want to be on the roller coaster but I want to enjoy a smoother ride.
Someone goes to a certain type of restaurant it is likely they would order a certain dish. From these individual customers, I as the restaurant manager make projections as to what to include in the menu. So the probability in terms of possible outcomes and actions can be not necessarily surmised but first thought about in advance. I can contemplate the probabilities that are ahead of me without summing up.
Probabilities also relate to what I'm likely to want to do.
So I we go into new territory, we don't have a fully formed picture of what exactly the new territory is going to be like. But we can go into the new territory with an understanding of what some of the probabilities might be, what we will probably want to do if and when we get there. We can be conscious of our course in terms of probabilities. Of course we aren't going to have an exact replica of the future in the present moment. Our lack of a prior understanding of a given landscape does not preclude some known probabilities.
It could be a lot of drudgery but maybe these new roads could also be exciting. We usually find that we are going for a number of highlights. Probability also relates to conditions not only a point. What are the surroundings going to be like? Weather is a condition of the atmosphere that we assign probability to. Probability relates to the differing conditions. I'll probably get differing conditions in Hawaii than Alaska. At a certain point in time and location there will be a certain temperature but we also look at conditions as we seek the probable. If I go to the Caribbean I project that conditions will favor a more comfortable swim.
We aren't necessarily stuck. A lot of what has happened isn't necessarily determinative because additional probability remains. So-called failure isn't determinative if there is still some probability of success. Those debts to the past can be erased. By the way, how much did you owe the past?
The basketball player is hoping that he will probably rebound well, run well, jump well, shoot well, and pass well. There are multiple facets of probability within this endeavor. Each of these facets will have their individual probability to consider. Even the simple coin has two sides of probability to consider. There could be many sides of probability to a given situation. The great passer in all probability is going to pass the ball well in most games he is in. He may or not have a similar probability for shooting the ball well.
What are the basic probabilities involved and how do we relate this to our prior perceptions.
There are lots or an abundance of insights, ideas, and thoughts that can bring us to a happy place. There is some degree of probability in any endeavor. Based on what you do know, you can project some of the probabilities over what you don't know.
Say we get half way to where we want to go. We project over what we have known our experience to be on this first part of the trip to the second half of the trip. Or a person who is 30 years old predicts the next 30 years of her life based on the first 30. But some of the probabilities involved would be different. History doesn't just fold over into the same. There can be a consistency over the years but it will not encompass every new probability all the way through.
Back to the theoretical trip, we project what we know our experience to be from the past on the first part of the trip onto the second part of the trip. I can say in all probability this is what I'm going to like and this is the way it's going to be, but I don't know for sure of course. There can be the feast or famine scenario. There can be the least likely scenario. Different scenes can take place. There are many possible scenes within the realm of the probable. The already well-worn paths might not contain the probabilities any more. I'm experiencing either feast or famine and I expect more of the same. Trends don't necessarily take on all the probabilities. We can't just project off the trend line. There can be other potentialities off the trend line. If we are always down in the trenches we can't always get wind of some of the new chances in other areas. First though come back into the present. Some of us are actually still in the past which doesn't have a probability left to it. As far as yesterday the probability left is zero, the ink is dry on the past, those wells of probability are evaporated, I can't make projections on what I'm going to do in 1999, it's the year 2002.
There are probabilities that are negative and those that are more positive. We can look to get away from the negative and emphasize the probabilities that are more positive. If you're still wrestling with an issue you probably haven't gotten on the sunny solution side of it. If I'm finding this situation negative, I can project more negativity. What happens is that we see the positives as more than probable, as an absolute must that has to happen. We then take away some of the positive by demanding a more probability than we actually have. So assigning a much higher probability can also be a negative in that it can become unrealistic and cause unrealistic expectations. If I project I'm going to the moon, and it's much more likely that Iím going to the grocery store, that can become negative and expectations will be left unmet. I never make it to the altar of possibility.
Enjoy the probabilities. Not only the guarantees. The girl goes to the beach and she can enjoy the probability that the sun will be pleasant and that she probably will have some admirers passing by. The good reader can enjoy the probability that she can pick up almost any book in the library and be able to read it well. We don't have to enjoy just the guarantees.
We see how sports fans enjoy projections on their team based on new acquisitions. The Yankees acquire Jason Giambi and their fans are exciting about him in the projected starting line up next year. I get a sports car and I project that when summer comes I'll ride along the coast. I enjoy this unique vision.
Any good positive for us that we can attach probability to is of value. Attractions would be like money in the bank. So anything that attaches itself to positive probabilities can have real value as much as say money.
We don't have to have rules of probability. 90 percent probability or ten percent probabilities are still in the realm of probability. I can make projections off low probabilities as well. It might be good think in terms of the probable in relation to new or different territories because that is what we are actually dealing with as we potentially cross those borders. We can follow either trail. I don't have to take the course with the highest probability. There is no rule saying I have to look for the most probable outcome. It is more a question of being aware of the probabilities. I can choose to go with long odds. If we are looking for a guarantee, and don't see it, then we claim to ourselves that it is not worthwhile and this in fact may not be the actual case as then we make the consideration all or nothing, guarantee or forget it. We give some credence, weight, and validity to all the probabilities we can see. There is more total value to choose from than we otherwise would have in a more all or nothing approach as we weigh our courses, options and make further outlines. We might find a better fit anyway.
An example of this could be a girl who goes to the beach with her friends and hopes somebody talks to her, particularly the guy who was right by the life guard chair the last two weekends and smiled at her. She assigns a 40 percent probability that this guy will talk to her today. So she says there is a 40 percent probability someone new will talk to me at the beach. But as the situation forms, there are three other guys who catch her eye and vice versa. One has a probability of talking to her of 10 percent, one has a probability of 5 percent, and one has a 20 percent probability of talking to her that day. And then there is a girl who is looking for a new friend who also wants to talk to her.
The probability is 7 percent that she will talk to her that day. The total probability of getting a conversation with a new person adds up to 40 +5+10+7+20=82. So there is more total probability than the original probability she cited as to getting a conversation on the beach. She made her projections one probability when there were several probabilities in the working in this situation for her. There was more total probability in the air then she originally thought.
We can see probability in terms of say degree. Say we are working with a temperature range of zero to 100 degrees. A degree range of 30 to 60 degrees will put me in the temperate zone. If I'm in the temperate zone then I may need a jacket in that zone. If I'm in the semi tropical zone of 70 to 90 degrees, I can walk around with just a tee shirt. We can relate probability to climatic conditions that we are in. We are in might be in a given zone of probability for a given set of circumstances. Where exactly where we are we can't be sure but we are in those climatic conditions that put us say in the temperate zone. As we audition for changes, what are the probable zones we could be in? I like to read novels this is my climate for reading. You might be in the climate of passion, the climate of disinterest, the climate of excitement, the climate of discontent. Our projections don't have to be that specific, they can be climatic projections.
Probability can also relate to situations and events that seem to be out of control. The situation itself doesn't have many markers. It seems to be out of control at some levels. For example, I go into the ocean for a swim and the waves are twirling and the waters seem to be out of control. But there is some probability we can assign to those conditions as well. We can still assign probability to water temperature and whether that is comfortable and even the out of control aspects contain some probability within them. Anything relating to the senses seems out of control to some people. Look at the sun; it's burning out of control. But it is probably going to rise tomorrow.
Any situation will become further defined as we choose to go further. As I go further down the coast, I can get those idyllic views. Although the situation is poorly defined or even unknown, doesn't mean that there isn't real probability involved. We aren't necessarily going to have full clarity at the outset.
Hopefully we can try the positive. Just because there is no visible outcome yet doesn't mean the there aren't real probabilities. Our launch into new territory might yet be successful. WE may not get that rocket booster that will bring us into the most our most stratospheric hopes but we can look for some equivalent, exciting, and interesting adventures. Those good scenes aren't necessarily beyond us. We still have some planetary possibilities assuming we can get out there. We apply our imagination to space and the stars why not apply our dreams to opportunities that are nearby that have a degree of probability to them. You don't have to put things on hold for the guarantee because you still have probability. We don't have to take the first open highway because there are other probabilities. But never discount the beginnings, that first road might be a good one, or even the best one. There is other fertile ground out there, if you open your eyes to it.
What tends to put us in the doldrums is that we don't see the possibilities. We look for more absolute certainty and donít find it, and just throw in the towel when we need to look in the fields of the probable, and see what we find there.
Probability can also work like the domino effect or theory. The Vietnam War was partly fought for reasons relating to the U.S. government subscribing to the domino theory. They projected that if all of Vietnam fell under communist rule, the rest of Southeast Asia would quickly follow. There might be a cascading or ripple effect or there might not be but this also within the probable. One probable course can bring me multiple outcomes. The dominos will fall. For example, being a movie star can bring further outcomes such as fame, notoriety, wealth, fan mail, and critics.
On looking through the rear view mirror, there are many probabilities that we could have considered. So we observe that we were dealing with probabilities in the past. The retrospective view shows that probabilities existed then. Those are the probabilities that we could have considered had we looked better and further down those roads that were before us then.
With probabilities we can consider roads that might be a bit off the beaten path for us, realizing that because these territories haven't been be tracked by us doesn't mean there is some real and reasonable probability attached to this. How many people have gone to the movies, but never considered being in the movies and actually projected themselves on the big screen?
Probabilities contain hints. The rain clouds are visible in the sky this is a hint it might rain. We can't be 100 percent sure but the signs are there. These hints can be useful.
What have we lost if we then disembark from this road? If the sea is that rough then it is time to come ashore. We can also attach probability to actions or courses not taken. If I don't train for the marathon, I probably will not feel comfortable running it. There are consequences to inaction as well as action. If not, then of course not. I can project that if I don't apply any thought to this, I will not have a thought threw solutions.
People sometimes leave themselves in situations where they get pounded by negativity. Why not just move. Take a look at the neighborhood your in. The neighborhood of your ideas, approaches, and ways of your thinking is also your neighborhood. They say you can move to a new location but you canít get away from yourself so we also can look at our viewpoints and see what general neighborhood they have us in. We are willing to move in other arenas we can move our abode but can we move our ideas, our concepts, our insights, our approaches, and our willingness to seek change. Feel free to move out of the negativity.
There is the existence of other potentialities that are probable. Positive situations, experiences, outcomes, concepts emanate for more probabilities. One situation presents multiple probabilities or one trail leads to another trail to where you want to go. Put today's probabilities into real light. We might have artificially minimized today's chances. Today means the present window, which might be just a moment in the day, the whole day, or for days, weeks and months ahead until whenever that window closes. After all it might take more than a day to get through that window. Even the window itself is only probable. We can also strike out on our own. Start small plant your own flower. You'll be proud as it grows.
If people are angry, it might be because they perceive that they have sold themselves short. Or have been sold short. Say you sell a diamond for 1,000 dollars and you then find the person you sold it to since having resold it for 1 million dollars. Would you feel gypped? You thought it was probably worth about 1,000 dollars on the current market. The mistake worked to someone else's advantage but not yours. Your projections of the value of this diamond on the marketplace were way off. You could have gotten a million for what you sold for a thousand. Sometimes you know youíre getting gypped and sometimes you don't know. Take a look.
One way we can gyp ourselves it to put everything into the far away happy future, at some point when things will culminate. We project everything into a far away future. We never consider that a point of passage could have been from a lower point. We finally get to that point and find the opportunity was way back then. I'm at the pinnacle but my opportunity didn't come there with me. That opportunity didn't stay for the whole ride to the top.
If you feel like you have been gypped, you probably have. Look for some of the probabilities involved. By not canceling our subscription to the magazine of negativity, you have cheated yourself out of the positive person you could have been. You cancelled the positive. If you are playing a role you can't enjoy, why are you playing this role at all? It's the part you didn't want. You still might have redress and recourse on the next sequence in the sequential probabilities.
Negativity tends to reinforce itself and eventually forms into a fortress. This fortress can effectively hide the cold facts of the positive. I have an invisible wall against the visions of the probable that are outside this fortress. I'll never make headway because I can't even see those possibilities anymore. But their existence outside of this fortress can be confirmed by a reality check. If the invisible wall seems to crumble, we seek to prop it back up with other negatives because we want to be right before anything else. If we truly want to put ourselves in the realm of the positive, we have to grant ourselves freedom to be wrong at times. By protecting ourselves from all outcomes, we throw everything to the wind. Real positive projections we could make just don't count. We also don't want to just seek to confirm our own dire and gloomy predictions. There is such a word as yea otherwise all we have is nay. Why people make such dire predictions that are out of touch with any of the positives that are still remaining is because they fathom themselves as prophets of doom, which puts them in the dungeon of doom. They would be embarrassed and run away from the positive surprise because then there prophecies would have been wrong for once. They refuse to be ever be touched by the positive.
What about you? You have readied yourself many times over for the negative why not get ready for the positive, in case this territory appears on your landscape. Your deliverance and my deliberations don't cast out the probabilities. I can debate all I want but there is going to be some probableís whether I follow their trail and where they might lead or not. We havenít been unsullied and faultless but we still have a chance.
Our own predilections and musings don't tell the whole story and donít always make the final call. Who among us carries the objective mirror?
What type of movie do you want to watch? Maybe you and I wouldn't want to go to our own movie because we would be too bored, disappointed, dismayed, or just not properly entertained.
After all, we found all those good negatives and it had been the end of the world, as we know it as far as being positive. We have been stuck in the muddy tracks of negativity, actually roiling in negativity. The circle I am in is closed to anything positive and new. For some the negativity we have arrived at is astounding. We would be astonished to see its entire largess all at once.
We will ever be awash in the positives again? The positives might not be so far away. We were once positive before we became receptive to all the negativities. Any assumptions including the negative assumptions don't always equal the real probabilities. Some people got discouraged more easily. It didn't take too much negativity to cause them to take their masts down.
Don't be too hard on yourself if you have quickly fallen in the face of negativity. Have some compassion on yourself. Right your sails again, look for that smooth sailing again. Go home on your desires.
Who is to say you are going off on a tangent if you can probably get there that way? Even within what we are doing, there are different facets of probability. Those differing facts and facets, all of which shows that there will be branches and more branches as we move in this direction or that direction. More branches might form as we make choices. If I train for a marathon, I can now also run 10-ks with the same training. I can make more projections based on the fact that I'm in shape now, and additional branches of probability have formed. For example, now I have a college degree. I make additional projections as to the job opportunities in some fields. Or I am thinking about traveling and I have the time, it is a question of affordability. I check my pockets I have a thousand dollars. I think of several possible trips. I check my coat pockets. I find an additional million dollars. I have many additional trips or branches of what I want to do as far as travel that I can afford based on what I have found in my coat pockets. I can go further down the coast in terms of my travel plans.
Hopefully, those movements are in the positive directions that highlight what can still be for me.
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